![]() ![]() The team say that r emaining at step 3 beyond 17 May is projected to maintain the effective reproduction number around 1 and keep hospitalisations and deaths at very low levels. If a variant of concern emerges with similar transmissibility to B.1.1.7 and with a moderate ability to evade immunity from vaccines and prior infection, the researchers predict that a third wave substantially larger (both in hospitalisation and deaths) than the winter of 2021 could occur. The remaining 28% of the population will be unprotected at this point because under 18-year-olds will not be vaccinated , and vaccines will not fully protect all people. This means that 72% of the English population could be protected against severe disease through vaccination or recovery from previous infection. Projections show that by 31 August 2021, 92% of the adult population (72% of whole population) will have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 78% of the adult population (61% of whole population) will have received two vaccine doses. Projections show that by 21 June 2021, 52% of the whole population will be protected against symptomatic disease and 60% against severe disease, due to either vaccination or recovery from infection, assuming a vaccine rollout rate of 2.7million doses per week. The team say that this means around 40% of adults (31% of the whole population) are protected against symptomatic disease, and 49% of adults (38% of the whole population) are protected against severe disease and hospitalisation, by vaccination. An additional 15% of the population who are not protected through vaccination are thought to be protected through immunity from past infection. ![]() Population protectionīased on PHE data available to 28 April 2021, 64% of the adult population in England have received at least one vaccine dose and 26% have received two doses. The team estimates that the current level of transmission in England is around 1, however, this estimate may not fully capture the impact of schools opening after Easter given the delay before changes in contact rates are reflected in surveillance data. The researchers say that most deaths are likely to occur in people who have already been vaccinated, as while the vaccines are highly effective, none are 100 percent effective at preventing hospitalisations and deaths. Hospital bed occupancy projections for England The latest models suggest that 72% of the English population could be protected against severe disease through vaccination or recovery from previous infection by the end of August. Imperial's researchers have revised their estimates for projected deaths from previous reports because of new data showing virus transmission from people who have been vaccinated but still get infected is nearly 50% lower than from unvaccinated cases. The report, along with work from the University of Warwick and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), is informing the UK government's ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown for England. The team warns that new variants of concern still have the potential to cause a much larger third wave depending on how they spread and whether they can escape immunity. Imperial’s COVID-19 Response Team estimate that if steps 3 and 4 of the roadmap continue as planned, there will be a small wave of hospitalisations and 9,000 (estimate range: 5,100 to 16,600) additional deaths by June 2022. The roadmap out of lockdown for England could lead to a smaller third wave in late summer or autumn, but the risks of new variants of concern remain. ![]()
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